According to @lookonchain, a newly created wallet labeled "mutualdelta" wagered $40,000 on the Polymarket contract "US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026" and lost the entire stake when the market settled against the bet, resulting in a -100% return; source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011743341348786436; https://polymarket.com/0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59. According to Polymarket’s market page and @lookonchain’s post, the 'Yes' side paid out zero at resolution, confirming a full $40,000 loss for the wallet "mutualdelta"; source: https://polymarket.com/0xaa6a2beda1ad8d5b40b6af71c4b6d075fa783c59; https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2011743341348786436.

According to @StockMKTNewz, a bill to ban Congress from trading stocks is expected to advance this week (source: @StockMKTNewz). @StockMKTNewz adds that Kalshi’s prediction market currently assigns a 59% chance the bill passes, offering a real-time gauge of legislative risk for traders to monitor (source: Kalshi). @StockMKTNewz also advocates an alternative approach of requiring members to pre-disclose every trade 24 hours ahead instead of an outright ban, highlighting a transparency-focused policy view relevant to event-driven strategies (source: @StockMKTNewz).

According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), a newly created wallet deposited $9,069 into Polymarket and bought YES shares on the market titled "Will the US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?" (source: @OnchainLens on X). According to @OnchainLens on X (Jan 12, 2026), this order constitutes a single-wallet directional position with $9,069 risk deployed toward a YES outcome in that geopolitical market (source: @OnchainLens on X).

According to @lookonchain, a new wallet named khami placed a Polymarket position that pays out if at least one event occurs by March 31, 2026: MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin BTC, MicroStrategy announces holding 750,000 plus BTC, MicroStrategy announces bankruptcy, or MicroStrategy MSTR is added to the S&P 500, source: Lookonchain on X https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2010521834861793460; Polymarket https://polymarket.com/0x914e244ae32c19982d96ab50b3b55e487d1feace. This market centralizes event risk around MSTR and BTC, enabling traders to hedge or speculate on MicroStrategy balance sheet actions, index inclusion, or solvency timelines through the contract’s settlement window to 2026-03-31, source: Polymarket https://polymarket.com/0x914e244ae32c19982d96ab50b3b55e487d1feace.

According to @lookonchain, a trader who previously netted $2.07M on $GOAT created a new Polymarket wallet named captainbigballs, with the on-chain identity tied to the earlier profit wallet. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://app.cielo.finance/profile/DFLsswviB5berifRS1qFXJhQMdSVkUYmu16hxrVbFtbm The trader spent $10.5K betting that the Iranian regime will fall by Jan 31, with the market showing 14% odds at the time of the wager. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://polymarket.com/0xb14F6783F35220d507a9f2680eDCF39A51cc233b On-chain flows indicate the captainbigballs funds originated from the wallet associated with the $2.07M $GOAT gains, linking the profiles across platforms. Source: https://twitter.com/lookonchain/status/2009451299658715568; https://app.cielo.finance/profile/DFLsswviB5berifRS1qFXJhQMdSVkUYmu16hxrVbFtbm; https://polymarket.com/0xb14F6783F35220d507a9f2680eDCF39A51cc233b

According to Lookonchain, a newly created wallet placed a USD 7,000 wager on Polymarket on the market titled “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Jan 31” at 13 percent odds, with the address shown at polymarket.com/0x4128Be7113DBca57DD75e7CD2cd508Dd9FEDdC3c (Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 8, 2026). According to Lookonchain, if the market resolves Yes, the position would yield an estimated USD 48,200 profit, representing a 683 percent gain (Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 8, 2026). According to Lookonchain, the wallet was created roughly one hour before placing the bet (Source: Lookonchain on X, Jan 8, 2026).

According to Lookonchain, four newly created wallets simultaneously placed positions on Polymarket’s "US strikes Iran by Jan 31, 2026" contract when the market probability was under 18 percent, highlighting clustered flow in a single geopolitical market. Source: Lookonchain (X, Jan 8, 2026); Polymarket user pages referenced by Lookonchain. According to Lookonchain, these wallets have not made any other bets, indicating a concentrated single-idea exposure rather than diversified speculation. Source: Lookonchain (X, Jan 8, 2026); Polymarket user pages referenced by Lookonchain. According to Lookonchain, the coordinated timing and new-wallet profiles are being flagged as notable activity for traders monitoring prediction-market order flow around geopolitical risk. Source: Lookonchain (X, Jan 8, 2026).

According to @lookonchain, the trader’s largest loss was $1.58M on the Polymarket Liverpool to win contract after buying YES at $0.66, highlighting a misread of implied probability, source: @lookonchain on X, Jan 5, 2026. The account adds that paying $0.66 for YES means you believe the true win probability exceeds 66%, and treating Polymarket like binary sports betting rather than probability trading drove most of the losses, source: @lookonchain on X, Jan 5, 2026.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Polymarket’s contract on whether President Maduro would be out of power by January 31 moved from 7% about 12 hours earlier to 67% at 2:10 AM ET as US strikes escalated, then fell to 37% by 4:00 AM ET, before spiking above 99% after Donald Trump said US forces captured Maduro and he was being flown to New York, with the account adding that Maduro will be charged on US soil, source: The Kobeissi Letter on X citing Polymarket odds data.

According to @simplykashif, prediction market Polymarket is pricing a 59% implied probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will outperform gold in 2026 based on its live market odds, as noted in his Jan 3, 2026 update (source: Polymarket; source: @simplykashif on X). On Polymarket, yes-share prices are interpreted as implied probabilities, so 59% reflects the market’s crowd-assessed likelihood for BTC to beat gold in 2026 (source: Polymarket).

According to @ai_9684xtpa, $LIT is now trading with a current fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $2.41B, providing the live reference level for day-one pricing bands, source: @ai_9684xtpa. According to @ai_9684xtpa citing opinion.trade data, the share of bets that FDV will exceed $2B one day post-listing has declined from 85.5% to 76.3% versus a week ago when the pre-market contract launched, source: @ai_9684xtpa. According to @ai_9684xtpa citing opinion.trade, market-implied odds for $4B/$6B/$8B outcomes have fallen sharply, with only 7% now projecting >$4B compared with 23% previously, source: @ai_9684xtpa. According to @ai_9684xtpa, Binance pre-market reference was $3.52 per token, implying a $3.52B FDV as a comparative anchor for near-term pricing, source: @ai_9684xtpa. According to @ai_9684xtpa citing opinion.trade, the top holder “Nijntje” controls 414k Lighter shares (≈$327k), indicating concentrated positioning among forecasters, source: @ai_9684xtpa. Based on these market-implied probabilities reported by @ai_9684xtpa, traders may recalibrate near-term targets toward the $2B–$3.5B FDV band and manage risk around those thresholds for momentum entries and exits, source: @ai_9684xtpa.

According to @ai_9684xtpa, within 24 hours of Binance listing LIT (Lighter) pre-market contracts, opinion.trade bettors shifted to 85.39% odds that day-one FDV exceeds $2B and 23% odds it exceeds $4B, with the >$4B bracket down 14.17%. Source: X/@ai_9684xtpa; opinion.trade topicId=88. As a reference, the Binance pre-market price is $3.52, implying a $3.52B FDV. Source: X/@ai_9684xtpa citing Binance pre-market. For traders, these market-implied odds cluster the near-term valuation between $2B and $4B, while the current pre-market sits near the midpoint, providing benchmarks for positioning and hedging into the listing. Source: opinion.trade topicId=88; X/@ai_9684xtpa.

According to the source, Polymarket now prices a 61% probability that Netflix NFLX will close the Warner Brothers deal, down from 80% earlier. Source: Polymarket. This move marks a 19 percentage-point decline and a 23.8% relative drop in market-implied odds based on on-chain prediction market pricing. Source: Polymarket.

According to @VitalikButerin, Ethereum needs a trustless onchain gas futures market—a prediction market on the BASEFEE—to create a forward-looking price signal for network fees. Source: @VitalikButerin on X, Dec 6, 2025. He states such contracts would allow users to hedge against future gas prices and effectively prepay for a specific quantity of gas within defined time intervals. Source: @VitalikButerin on X, Dec 6, 2025. He adds that while fees are low today, uncertainty remains over the next two years, and he expects fee relief from higher gas limits via BAL, ePBS, and later ZK-EVM, making BASEFEE futures useful for expectation discovery and risk management. Source: @VitalikButerin on X, Dec 6, 2025.

According to the source, Polymarket is reportedly hiring an in-house team to trade against customer order flow, creating a venue-as-principal setup that can affect execution quality (source: @OKnightCrypto social post on Dec 5, 2025). The source characterizes this as a risk, highlighting potential conflicts of interest and information asymmetry that can widen spreads and increase slippage for traders (source: @OKnightCrypto social post on Dec 5, 2025). Traders should closely monitor changes in spreads, order book depth, and fill quality on Polymarket, and consider tighter slippage and position limits until clear controls and disclosures are provided (source: @OKnightCrypto social post on Dec 5, 2025). Diversifying execution across venues with transparent market-making policies can mitigate venue-specific risk highlighted by the source (source: @OKnightCrypto social post on Dec 5, 2025).

According to @cz_binance, a new prediction market has launched on BNB Chain where funds used to make predictions will generate yield rather than remain idle, indicating a yield-bearing collateral model for on-chain traders (source: @cz_binance on X, Dec 3, 2025). @cz_binance added that the project’s founder is a former Binance employee and that the initiative is incubated/invested by YZiLabs, while emphasizing the post is not an endorsement, which is a material disclosure for risk-aware market participants (source: @cz_binance on X, Dec 3, 2025). For trading strategy, the yield-accruing design can affect effective net returns during active positions in prediction markets on BNB Chain, making the APY on posted funds a key variable alongside market odds and settlement timeline (source: @cz_binance on X, Dec 3, 2025).

According to @CoinMarketCap, prediction market platform Kalshi closed a $1 billion funding round led by Paradigm with participation from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz and ARK Invest, setting its valuation at $11 billion.

According to @ai_9684xtpa on X (Dec 3, 2025), UnifAI ($UAI) has joined Polymarket’s 1M Builders Program and is listed as a Top 10 project on the Builders leaderboard (source: https://twitter.com/ai_9684xtpa/status/1996200078403657976). According to @ai_9684xtpa and the UnifaiNetwork official announcement on X, UnifAI is running an AI agent trading competition on Polymarket with 60,000 UAI in prizes, featuring individual ROI ranking and team trading-volume ranking, with final winners sharing all UnifAI revenue from the Polymarket Builders program (sources: https://twitter.com/ai_9684xtpa/status/1996200078403657976; https://x.com/UnifaiNetwork/status/1995501928739188981). According to @ai_9684xtpa, more projects are shifting campaigns to Polymarket as prediction markets heat up to tap dense capital flows and mature infrastructure, highlighting venue liquidity and incentive alignment for active traders (source: https://twitter.com/ai_9684xtpa/status/1996200078403657976). According to the UnifaiNetwork announcement on X, content creators can also participate under the event’s detailed rules provided in the official post (source: https://x.com/UnifaiNetwork/status/1995501928739188981).

According to @StockMKTNewz, he purchased a Yes position at $0.48 on Kalshi’s market asking whether Bitcoin BTC will cross above $100K this year on Dec 3, 2025, signaling a time-bound bet on a year-end six-figure break, source: @StockMKTNewz on X. At $0.48, Kalshi pricing implies roughly a 48% probability and pays $1 per Yes if the event occurs by the contract’s deadline, yielding $0.52 gross profit per contract and about 2.08x gross return if it resolves Yes, source: Kalshi. If the event does not occur by resolution, the Yes settles at $0, putting the $0.48 stake at risk; traders can also close before expiry at the prevailing market price, source: Kalshi. This sets $100,000 as the binary settlement trigger for BTC into year-end 2025, focusing traders on risk-reward and timing around that level, source: @StockMKTNewz on X.

According to @Polymarket, Nasry Tito Asfura has taken the lead in the Honduras presidential election, with the market showing a 67% chance he wins, source: @Polymarket on X, Dec 1, 2025. This 67% figure is the current Polymarket-implied probability that traders can reference for event-driven positioning as odds update in real time, source: @Polymarket on X, Dec 1, 2025.